Post by David J. Glanfield on Sept 25, 2020 9:54:46 GMT
Following disappointing results for the April county council elections Labour was more hopeful for the May borough elections. A recent opinion poll had put them ahead of the Tories for the first time since the back end of 1967.
The morning headlines for Friday 8th May were very favourable for Labour – over 400 gains – heartening for a party that had suffered net losses at every municipal election since coming to power in 1964. Two more opinion polls registered Labour leads. The runes were set for a June election.
Saturday’s edition of the The Times listed Lab +443, Con -327, Lib -25, PC -2, Ind -66 and Others -23.
Labour had gained 13 seats in Birmingham, 11 in Manchester, 10 in Leeds, 9 in Ashton-under-Lyne, 8 in Derby, Warley, Crewe, Liverpool, Bolton and Bootle, 7 in Bradford, Newport, Leicester, Salford and Coventry. Strong gains but very few boroughs changed hands because Labour had been trounced in the preceding years. Norwich, Dewsbury and Barrow saw Labour take control however Birkenhead and Stoke (anti-Labour alliance) would fall following the aldermanic elections.
The Times calculated that Labour had won 1,210 seats in the boroughs, which was way up on the 540 won in 1969 however it was noted that Labour had not recovered all their 1967 losses. More detailed analysis uncovered a chasm in Labour’s performance across England. The large cities had moved leftwards since May 1966 but the towns had moved to the Conservatives. The North was better for Labour; the South for the Conservatives. The Economist’s table for comparable wards showed that Labour had polled 75,000 more votes than in 1969 but the Tories were only 19,000 votes down. The swing to Labour was primarily their disaffected supporters ‘returning home’ especially in the northern cities.
Given the latest polls and Labour’s gains The Economist printed an article ‘Wilson by Fifty?’ (The table below lists the 1966 Labour marginals by 1970 borough results). A correspondent wrote to the magazine suggesting that the local election results were too mixed and offered a forecast of a Labour majority of 150 to a Tory majority of 50! If these local polls (and subsequent ones) teach the psephologist and politician anything it should be treat with caution especially if you’re considering calling an election.
Quick note about the urban and rural district elections held during the week. Labour claimed a net gain of 283 seats in the UDCs and 97 net gains in the RDCs. The Tories countered this claim. According to their calculations Labour had 201 net gains in the UDCs mainly at Liberal and Independent expense because the Conservative loss was only 49.
(Further reading The Times 8th/9th and 11th May 1970, The Economist May 2nd and 16th 1970).
The morning headlines for Friday 8th May were very favourable for Labour – over 400 gains – heartening for a party that had suffered net losses at every municipal election since coming to power in 1964. Two more opinion polls registered Labour leads. The runes were set for a June election.
Saturday’s edition of the The Times listed Lab +443, Con -327, Lib -25, PC -2, Ind -66 and Others -23.
Labour had gained 13 seats in Birmingham, 11 in Manchester, 10 in Leeds, 9 in Ashton-under-Lyne, 8 in Derby, Warley, Crewe, Liverpool, Bolton and Bootle, 7 in Bradford, Newport, Leicester, Salford and Coventry. Strong gains but very few boroughs changed hands because Labour had been trounced in the preceding years. Norwich, Dewsbury and Barrow saw Labour take control however Birkenhead and Stoke (anti-Labour alliance) would fall following the aldermanic elections.
The Times calculated that Labour had won 1,210 seats in the boroughs, which was way up on the 540 won in 1969 however it was noted that Labour had not recovered all their 1967 losses. More detailed analysis uncovered a chasm in Labour’s performance across England. The large cities had moved leftwards since May 1966 but the towns had moved to the Conservatives. The North was better for Labour; the South for the Conservatives. The Economist’s table for comparable wards showed that Labour had polled 75,000 more votes than in 1969 but the Tories were only 19,000 votes down. The swing to Labour was primarily their disaffected supporters ‘returning home’ especially in the northern cities.
Given the latest polls and Labour’s gains The Economist printed an article ‘Wilson by Fifty?’ (The table below lists the 1966 Labour marginals by 1970 borough results). A correspondent wrote to the magazine suggesting that the local election results were too mixed and offered a forecast of a Labour majority of 150 to a Tory majority of 50! If these local polls (and subsequent ones) teach the psephologist and politician anything it should be treat with caution especially if you’re considering calling an election.
Quick note about the urban and rural district elections held during the week. Labour claimed a net gain of 283 seats in the UDCs and 97 net gains in the RDCs. The Tories countered this claim. According to their calculations Labour had 201 net gains in the UDCs mainly at Liberal and Independent expense because the Conservative loss was only 49.
(Further reading The Times 8th/9th and 11th May 1970, The Economist May 2nd and 16th 1970).